This lesson explores the concept of probability within a well loved picture book. Ākonga will have opportunities to use the language of chance, possible, impossible, will happen, won’t happen or might not happen.

This activity explores the following key ideas:��

• Engage with a story�� that involves chance-based situations and:

– decide if something will happen, won’t happen, or might happen

– identify possible and impossible outcomes (e.g., what might happen next).

Resources

• Y1 Who probably sank the boat teaching notes
• A copy of the book ‘Who Sank the Boat’ by Pamela Allen or a screen to watch this of the book being read aloud
• Large vocabulary cards with the words chance, possible, impossible,�� will happen, won’t happen, might not happen.
• Plastic containers, plastic lids or paper to make a paper boat
• of how to make a paper boat
• Various small items to represent different ‘animals’ to place into the boat
• A tuff tray filled with water, water play trough or the school swimming pool

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This activity explores the following key ideas:

• Engage in chance-based investigations with equally likely outcomes by:
  – posing an investigative question
  – anticipate and then identify possible outcomes for the investigative question
  – generating all possible ways to get each outcome (a theoretical approach), or undertaking a probability experiment and recording the occurrences of each outcome
  – creating data visualisations for possible outcomes
  – describe what these data visualisations show
  – finding probabilities as fractions
  – answering the investigative question
  – reflecting on anticipated outcomes��
• Agree or disagree with others’ conclusions about chance based investigations

Resources

• Y4 teaching notes
• Year 4 Probability
• Coins, enough for three coins for each group
• Large paper or whiteboard
• Whiteboard markers, pens
• Post it notes
• The Great Coin Toss Challenge�� MM1 – for listing outcomes for various numbers of coins
• The Great Coin Toss Challenge MM2 – table to record outcomes from a probability experiment for tossing two coins
• The Great Coin Toss Challenge MM3 – bar graph blank to record results of the probability experiment
• Optional – Digital modelling tool with a bar graph generator such as Google Sheets or Microsoft Excel.

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This activity explores the following key ideas:

• Engage in chance-based investigations with equally likely outcomes by:
  – posing an investigative question
  – anticipate and then identify possible outcomes for the investigative question
  – generating all possible ways to get each outcome (a theoretical approach), or undertaking a probability experiment and recording the occurrences of each outcome
  – creating data visualisations for possible outcomes
  – describe what these data visualisations show
  – answering the investigative question
  – reflecting on anticipated outcomes��
• Agree or disagree with others’ conclusions about chance based investigations

Resources

• Y4 teaching notes
• Year 4 Probability
• Lucky Seven – Lesson 1 probability experiment – table to record results of probability experiment
• Paper, markers or something for each group to draw and record with
• Lucky Seven – sums of dice graph grids
• Lucky Seven chart – red & blue dice or Lucky Seven chart – colour according to your dice
• Lucky Seven – dice squares
• Optional virtual
• Optional
• Optional

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Ākonga will explore the relationship between theoretical outcomes and experimental outcomes within the context of a multiplication game. This two part lesson is for Year 4 ākonga.����

This activity explores the following key ideas:

• Engage in chance-based investigations with equally likely outcomes by:
  – posing an investigative question
  – anticipate and then identify possible outcomes for the investigative question
  – generating all possible ways to get each outcome (a theoretical approach), or undertaking a probability experiment and recording the occurrences of each outcome
  – creating data visualisations for possible outcomes
  – describe what these data visualisations show
  – finding probabilities as fractions
  – answering the investigative question
  – reflecting on anticipated outcomes��
• Agree or disagree with others’ conclusions about chance based investigations

Resources

• Y4 teaching notes
• Year 4 Probability
• Last One Standing gameboards��enough for your class to play in 2’s or 4’s.
• Paper clips to use as spinners, two for each gameboard
• Coloured counters
• Post It notes
• Last One Standing MM1 | Listing all possible outcomes chart
• Last One Standing MM2 |�� Frequency table
• Last One Standing MM3 | Theoretical probability table
• Last One Standing MM4 | Experimental probability table
• Optional – Digital spinner tool such as

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Document with all three year plans

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Ākonga will take turns playing this chance-based traditional Māori game, incorporating key vocabulary while anticipating outcomes. They need to play the game several times before undertaking statistical thinking. This game has potential for inclusion in everyday class interactions to build fitness, whakawhanaungatanga and to strengthen mental dexterity.��

This activity explores the following key ideas:��

• Engage in chance-based investigations about games and everyday situations to:
  – anticipate and then identify possible outcomes
  – collect and record data
  – create visualisations for frequencies of outcomes (e.g., lists, picture, graphs)
  – describe what these data visualisations show
  – answer chance-based investigative questions
  –�� notice variations in outcomes��

Resources

• Y3 Whano whano teaching notes
• How to play Whano whano
• If you wish to play an alternative version you can begin with two movement options only and then build up to selecting from the four moves once confident with the way to play the game.�� The full game is needed for this probability lesson.
• This Scratch Garden Mini Maths Movie shows how to record using a tally chart
• Large paper and vivids for making a class table
• Paper or something for ākonga to record their results in��
• Optional – counters to represent the different possible outcomes

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There are many forms of random name generators utilised in classrooms across the curriculum. This provides many opportunities to make use of this lesson. It is a lesson that can be as small or as large as you would like to make it. We suggest that you teach this lesson as one larger lesson early in the year, it can then be used as an ongoing classroom activity to reinforce language and key vocabulary.

This activity explores the following key ideas:

• Engage in chance-based investigations about games and everyday situations to:
  – identify possible outcomes
  – collect and record data
  – create visualisations for frequencies of outcomes (e.g., lists, picture, graphs)
  – describe what these data visualisations show
  – answer chance-based investigative questions
  –�� notice variations in outcomes��

Resources

• Y3 Random name generator teaching notes
• Two cups, one labelled ‘coming up soon’, one labelled ‘have had a go’.
• Iceblock sticks labelled with names, one for each ākonga.��
• Other cups for group work, two for each group.
• A class list of names, one for each group.
• Material Master, one copy for each group.

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This chance-based investigation explores possible combinations through an animal drawing activity. Students will draw different animal heads, bodies, and tails/legs, then experiment with various combinations to create new animals, discovering all possibilities. This activity offers the opportunity to create patterns when exploring possible outcomes and numerous opportunities for extension��

This activity explores the following key ideas:

• Engage in chance-based investigations about games and everyday situations to:
  – identify possible outcomes
  – collect and record data
  – create visualisations for frequencies of outcomes (e.g., lists, picture, graphs)
  – describe what these data visualisations show
  – answer chance-based investigative questions
  –�� notice variations in outcomes��

Resources

• Y3 Crazy animals teaching notes
• One sheet per ākonga of A4 paper folded into thirds, so that there is a top, a mid section and a lower section.
• Felt pens, scissors

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Ākonga will explore a chance-based investigation that emphasises the role of data organisation and clarifies ākonga understandings of key vocabulary. This lesson is for Year 2 ākonga.

This activity explores the following key ideas:��

• Engage in chance-based investigations about games and everyday situations to:
  – identify possible outcomes
  – collect and record data
  – create visualisations for frequencies of outcomes (e.g., lists, picture, graphs)
  – describe what these data visualisations show
  – answer chance-based investigative questions
  – notice variations in outcomes��

Resources

• Y2 Gumball Machine teaching notes
• A ‘gumball machine’. This may be homemade (see ),�� a glass jar such as a jam jar with (30 yellow, 19 blue and 1 red) beads/pom pom balls or similar inside.�� Ākonga must be able to see through the sides of the container.
• A jar for each group of ākonga.
• Beads, pompoms, or counters for each group. You may also like to use a (gumballs).��

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Ākonga will take turns playing a chance-based game that incorporates key vocabulary while anticipating outcomes. This game based lesson is for Year 2 ākonga, and intended to follow on from the Year One lesson ‘Lucky Dip’, or played as a warm-up before the ‘Human Slot Machine’ investigation in Year 3. Additionally, it can be used as an ongoing classroom activity to reinforce language and key vocabulary.

This activity explores the following key ideas:��

• Engage in chance-based investigations about games and everyday situations to:
  – identify possible outcomes
  – collect and record data
  – create visualisations for frequencies of outcomes (e.g., lists, picture, graphs)
  – describe what these data visualisations show
  – answer chance-based investigative questions
  –�� notice variations in outcomes��

Resources

• Y2 Tricky Trickster teaching notes
• Two chairs, placed one in front of the other
• Two matching large tubs or buckets
• Two lots of two different items that fit into the tub together
• Two extra singular items that fit into the tub

Suggestions for items: A rubber chicken, squeaky pig dog toy, a large mixing spoon, a soft toy, a tennis ball, a sock

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