ࡱ> KMJ  $bjbj 4@__ 8%Di,+4(,+.+.+.+.+.+.+$-0rR+R+g+,+,+(|(*;mYVP)+}+0+b) 1fd 1$(*(* 1<*R+R+.+ 1 : TEACHER: PLEASE READ There are two versions of this test, one after the other. You want to hand out the test so that half the students get one version, and half the other version. Print two to a page (backed) so each student gets a small quiz to complete. The tests are identical except for the numbers chosen as the anchor in questions #4 and #6. This is an experiment and can be discussed as such. Depending on the school, question #4 might need to be changed to something the students wont know, or the numbers adjusted for the size of the school. Ideas to promote class discussion when going over the test: Question #1 (Rudy Swinkels) Student can be encouraged to do research to find out the numbers of people in different professions in NZ. This is not an easy task. Problems of definition can be discussed (what is a farmer?) Recency of statistical information. Stats NZ vs Wikipedia as a data source. Good sources of data (first one also useful for students considering their future):  HYPERLINK "https://www.careers.govt.nz/jobs-database/" https://www.careers.govt.nz/jobs-database/ 859 surgeons in 2017. 13,000 lawyers in 2017 (adding barristers & solicitors)  HYPERLINK "http://archive.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/environment/environmental-reporting-series/environmental-indicators/Home/Land/farm-size-and-numbers.aspx" http://archive.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/environment/environmental-reporting-series/environmental-indicators/Home/Land/farm-size-and-numbers.aspx 53000 farms in 2016 Questions #4 and #6 The results for the anchoring questions can be gathered on the whiteboard or put into a csv file and looked at on nzgrapher. Discuss sampling variability with small samples and that you will learn later how to tell if the difference is likely to be real or just due to randomness. Could link here to what randomness looks like, or as an introduction to experimental design. Question #3 On the PowerPoint, the first slide with actual data has the 1997 figures. Before moving on, ask students to predict how death rates have changed in the last 20 years, what would be higher, what would be lower. Show them the 2016 data on the next slide and discuss reasons for the difference (students could do some research). Fewer heart deaths are partially due to less smoking, better treatment of people at risk (eg statins) is part of the answer. Paradoxically more diabetes is primarily due to more obesity. Probability minitest 1 1. Rudy Swinkels is a bit on the peculiar side. He has unusual tastes in movies and art, he is married to a performer, and he has tattoos on various parts of his body. In his spare time Rudy takes yoga classes and likes to collect 78rpm records. An outgoing and rather boisterous person, he has been known to act on a dare on more than one occasion. What do you think Rudys occupation most probably is? (circle one) a) farmer b) librarian c) trapeze artist d) surgeon e) lawyer 2. Consider the first 2000 words of the novel Pride and Prejudice: How many words would have n as the second last letter? ____ How many words would start with the letter p? ____ How many words would end in ing? ____ 3. What is the probability of a person in New Zealand dying due to: a) stroke? b) diabtes ? c) car crash ? d) heart disease? e) breast cancer? 4. a) How many teachers are there at this school? (circle one) More than 200 Fewer than 200 b) What is your exact guess of the number of teachers at this school? _____ 5. Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She has a degree in philosophy. As a student she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and worked as a volunteer for Oxfam. What is more likely? (circle one) Linda is a bank teller? Linda is a bank teller who is active in the Labour party? 6. a) Was Mahatma Gandhi older or younger than 16 when he died? _______ b) How old do you think Mahatma Gandhi was when he died? _________ 7. How many millions in a billion? 8. If the probability that Gina will need to wear glasses in the next 10 years is 1 in 100, and Chriss probability of wearing glasses is double that of Ginas, then what probability of wearing glasses does Chris have? _____________ 9. Imagine we roll a fair, six-sided die 1000 times. Out of 1000 rolls, how many times do you think the die will come up even (2, 4 or 6)? ____________ 10. In the ACME Publishing Sweepstakes, the chance of winning a car is one in 1000. What percent of tickets in the ACME Publishing Sweepstakes win a car? ____________ Probability minitest 1 1. Rudy Swinkels is a bit on the peculiar side. He has unusual tastes in movies and art, he is married to a performer, and he has tattoos on various parts of his body. In his spare time Rudy takes yoga classes and likes to collect 78rpm records. An outgoing and rather boisterous person, he has been known to act on a dare on more than one occasion. What do you think Rudys occupation most probably is? (circle one) a) farmer b) librarian c) trapeze artist d) surgeon e) lawyer 2. Consider the first 2000 words of the novel Pride and Prejudice: How many words would have n as the second last letter? ____ How many words would start with the letter p? ____ How many words would end in ing? ____ 3. What is the probability of a person in New Zealand dying due to: a) stroke? b) diabtes ? c) car crash ? d) heart disease? e) breast cancer? 4. a) How many teachers are there at this school? (circle one) More than 100 Fewer than 100 b) What is your exact guess of the number of teachers at this school? _____ 5. Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She has a degree in philosophy. As a student she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and worked as a volunteer for Oxfam. What is more likely? (circle one) Linda is a bank teller? Linda is a bank teller who is active in the Labour party? 6. a) Was Mahatma Gandhi older or younger than 140 when he died? _______ b) How old do you think Mahatma Gandhi was when he died? _________ 7. How many millions in a billion? 8. If the probability that Gina will need to wear glasses in the next 10 years is 1 in 100, and Chriss probability of wearing glasses is double that of Ginas, then what probability of wearing glasses does Chris have? _____________ 9. Imagine we roll a fair, six-sided die 1000 times. Out of 1000 rolls, how many times do you think the die will come up even (2, 4 or 6)? ____________ 10. In the ACME Publishing Sweepstakes, the chance of winning a car is one in 1000. What percent of tickets in the ACME Publishing Sweepstakes win a car? ____________      . / n $ & ' Q R ɹɩp\I\4\(hq'hj 70JCJ OJQJaJ mH sH $hj 7hj 7CJ OJQJaJ mH sH 'jhj 7CJ OJQJUaJ mH sH hICJ OJQJaJ mH sH $h?xb5CJ OJQJ\aJ mH sH *hIhj 75CJ OJQJ\aJ mH sH hj 7CJ OJQJaJ mH sH h?xbCJ OJQJaJ mH sH h(CJ OJQJaJ mH sH !h(>*CJ OJQJaJ mH sH *h(h(5>*CJ OJQJaJ mH sH   / 0 1 m n  $dha$gdIgd{gd( G I J  <ZۣwgggWgD$h(h(CJ OJQJaJ mH sH hICJ OJQJaJ mH sH h{CJ OJQJaJ mH sH *hIh(5CJ OJQJ\aJ mH sH *hIh{5CJ OJQJ\aJ mH sH h?xbCJ OJQJaJ mH sH (hq'hj 70JCJ OJQJaJ mH sH $hj 7hj 7CJ OJQJaJ mH sH hj 7CJ OJQJaJ mH sH 'jhj 7CJ OJQJUaJ mH sH =EIWghimyz|~ȵ|mm^mO^m^O^O^mOhIhICJaJmH sH hIhsCJaJmH sH hIhaCJaJmH sH hIh/!CJaJmH sH h|CJaJmH sH hIh5]CJaJmH sH hIh~CJaJmH sH %hIhxq5>*CJ$\aJ$mH sH %hIhs5>*CJ$\aJ$mH sH %hIh5]5>*CJ$\aJ$mH sH !h(>*CJ OJQJaJ mH sH XY6z 0CVW    dh`gdI dh^gdI dhgdIm$ & FdhgdIgdIdhgdIabde $(/0GTUVW[{{l]hIh/!CJaJmH sH hIhaCJaJmH sH hIhNCJaJmH sH hIhICJaJmH sH hIh;g CJaJmH sH hIh;g CJaJmH sH hIhsCJaJmH sH hICJaJmH sH hIhg6CJaJmH sH hIhgCJaJmH sH hIhNCJaJmH sH [a}  `abekuxyǸǩ⋸|m^O^OhIhtCJaJmH sH hIhXCJaJmH sH hIh#kCJaJmH sH hIhK@CJaJmH sH hIhNHCJaJmH sH hIh51)CJaJmH sH hIhaCJaJmH sH hIhsCJaJmH sH hIhbCJaJmH sH h|CJaJmH sH hIh/!CJaJmH sH hIhICJaJmH sH  'abOPST,-0gdI $dha$gdIdhgdI DJOPQJNRSTVp ⦗ⵈyjyyjy^OyyhIhICJaJmH sH hK@CJaJmH sH hIhcCJaJmH sH hIhaCJaJmH sH hIh51)CJaJmH sH hIh*"CJaJmH sH hIhNCJaJmH sH hIhK@CJaJmH sH hIh#kCJaJmH sH hIhtCJaJmH sH hIhXCJaJmH sH hIhYCJaJmH sH  ,=>&/`sķĘĉĉĉzjjjj[L[LhIhICJaJmH sH hIh(CJaJmH sH hIh(6CJaJmH sH hIhACJaJmH sH hIhICJaJmH sH h|CJaJmH sH %hIh(5>*CJ$\aJ$mH sH hI>*CJaJmH sH hIh(CJaJmH sH hIhBCJaJmH sH hIhaCJaJmH sH hIhcCJaJmH sH 01uAB<= -!gdI dh`gdI dh^gdI dhgdIm$ & FdhgdIdhgdI w !!!$$$$$$$$$$⳯hD@jhD@Uh(CJaJmH sH h|CJaJmH sH hIhICJaJmH sH hIh(CJaJmH sH hIh(CJaJmH sH -!.!x!y!!!!{"""`#a###s$$$$$$$$$$$$$gd!edhgdI21h:pa. A!"#$% w2 0@P`p2( 0@P`p 0@P`p 0@P`p 0@P`p 0@P`p 0@P`p8XV~8XV~ 0@ 0@ 0@ 0@ 0@ 0@ 0@ 0@ 0@ 0@ 0@ 0@ 6666_HmH nH sH tH @`@ NormalCJ_HaJmH sH tH DA D Default Paragraph FontRiR  Table Normal4 l4a (k (No List 44 !eHeader  B#6/6 !e Header CharCJaJ4 4 !eFooter  B#6/!6 !e Footer CharCJaJ6U`16 j 7 Hyperlink >*B*phcRv!AR j 70Unresolved MentionB*ph`^\q PK![Content_Types].xmlN0EH-J@%ǎǢ|ș$زULTB l,3;rØJB+$G]7O٭VGRU1a$N% ʣꂣKЛjVkUDRKQj/dR*SxMPsʧJ5$4vq^WCʽ D{>̳`3REB=꽻Ut Qy@֐\.X7<:+& 0h @>nƭBVqu ѡ{5kP?O&Cנ Aw0kPo۵(h[5($=CVs]mY2zw`nKDC]j%KXK 'P@$I=Y%C%gx'$!V(ekڤք'Qt!x7xbJ7 o߼W_y|nʒ;Fido/_1z/L?>o_;9:33`=—S,FĔ觑@)R8elmEv|!ո/,Ә%qh|'1:`ij.̳u'k CZ^WcK0'E8S߱sˮdΙ`K}A"NșM1I/AeހQתGF@A~eh-QR9C 5 ~d"9 0exp<^!͸~J7䒜t L䈝c\)Ic8E&]Sf~@Aw?'r3Ȱ&2@7k}̬naWJ}N1XGVh`L%Z`=`VKb*X=z%"sI<&n| .qc:?7/N<Z*`]u-]e|aѸ¾|mH{m3CԚ .ÕnAr)[;-ݑ$$`:Ʊ>NVl%kv:Ns _OuCX=mO4m's߸d|0n;pt2e}:zOrgI( 'B='8\L`"Ǚ 4F+8JI$rՑVLvVxNN";fVYx-,JfV<+k>hP!aLfh:HHX WQXt,:JU{,Z BpB)sֻڙӇiE4(=U\.O. +x"aMB[F7x"ytѫиK-zz>F>75eo5C9Z%c7ܼ%6M2ˊ 9B" N "1(IzZ~>Yr]H+9pd\4n(Kg\V$=]B,lוDA=eX)Ly5ot e㈮bW3gp : j$/g*QjZTa!e9#i5*j5ö fE`514g{7vnO(^ ,j~V9;kvv"adV݊oTAn7jah+y^@ARhW.GMuO "/e5[s󿬅`Z'WfPt~f}kA'0z|>ܙ|Uw{@՘tAm'`4T֠2j ۣhvWwA9 ZNU+Awvhv36V`^PK! ѐ'theme/theme/_rels/themeManager.xml.relsM 0wooӺ&݈Э5 6?$Q ,.aic21h:qm@RN;d`o7gK(M&$R(.1r'JЊT8V"AȻHu}|$b{P8g/]QAsم(#L[PK-![Content_Types].xmlPK-!֧6 0_rels/.relsPK-!kytheme/theme/themeManager.xmlPK-!g theme/theme/theme1.xmlPK-! ѐ' theme/theme/_rels/themeManager.xml.relsPK] @  [ $ 0-!$&QIXX8@0(  B S  ?5 7 SY!)6>..nw~\]$y"$ >6QuA|P:- Q~\ ^`OJQJo( 8^8`OJQJo(^`OJQJ^Jo(o  p^ `OJQJo(  @ ^ `OJQJo( x^x`OJQJo(H^H`OJQJ^Jo(o ^`OJQJo( ^`OJQJo(^`o() ^`hH. pLp^p`LhH. @ @ ^@ `hH. ^`hH. L^`LhH. ^`hH. ^`hH. PLP^P`LhH.^`o() ^`hH. pLp^p`LhH. @ @ ^@ `hH. ^`hH. L^`LhH. ^`hH. ^`hH. PLP^P`LhH.^`o(. ^`hH. pLp^p`LhH. @ @ ^@ `hH. ^`hH. L^`LhH. ^`hH. ^`hH. PLP^P`LhH.88^8`o() ^`hH.  L ^ `LhH.   ^ `hH. xx^x`hH. HLH^H`LhH. ^`hH. ^`hH. L^`LhH.^`o() ^`hH. pLp^p`LhH. @ @ ^@ `hH. ^`hH. L^`LhH. ^`hH. ^`hH. PLP^P`LhH. QuA]$ >wQ                                            Hj}\10X#k;g hv B5]sgI/!du$51)j 7!=D@K@NH%7IO[SY5{Z?xb!e4i^xlnxq4fs"{#"~*"Aa(|-Lb<B]YoNcFt@@Unknown G*Ax Times New Roman5^Symbol3. *Cx ArialCNComic Sans MSC.,*{$ Calibri Light7.*{$ Calibri?= *Cx Courier New;^WingdingsA$BCambria Math"AhsGsGrDR3DR3!'r43QHP ?5]2!xxq Probability minitest 1St Marion Steel$      Oh+'0  4 @ L Xdlt|'Probability minitest 1St Normal.dotmMarion Steel3Microsoft Office Word@ @@Y@jYDR ՜.+,D՜.+,T hp  'Epsom Girls Grammar3 Probability minitest 1 Title< 8@ _PID_HLINKS'A 5'http://archive.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/environment/environmental-reporting-series/environmental-indicators/Home/Land/farm-size-and-numbers.aspx#x+https://www.careers.govt.nz/jobs-database/  "#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789;<=>?@ACDEFGHILRoot Entry FLGmYN1Table!-1WordDocument4@SummaryInformation(:DocumentSummaryInformation8BCompObjr  F Microsoft Word 97-2003 Document MSWordDocWord.Document.89q